December 25, 2007

I agree with Fred. Facebook is clearly not over.

Is there a term for people in an industry predicting the demise of something based off insiders’ reactions instead of the general public’s? Let’s coin one now if there isn’t. How about “The Wild Hogs Effect” (6% “Cream of the Crop” Rotten Tomatoes score, over a quarter billion dollars worldwide gross)?

While these Internet “insiders” gripe and moan about something like Beacon invading users’ privacy and the users revolting, here’s what they don’t realize — the average user doesn’t give a shit.

Mark Zuckerberg is a smart guy. He knows (as anybody who has been in the software game long enough does) that for something to be popular, it needs to be the default choice. Why? Because most users are lazy and they just go along with whatever the standard is. In order for Beacon to work, it needs to be forced upon the users. Leaving it up to the members to opt into participating in Beacon to alert their friends of their buying habits would never fly. Why? Because so few people would voluntarily opt in to that program, it would be useless.

The telemarketing industry is still chugging along, despite the “opt-out” do-not-call list. Can you imagine what would happen to that industry if do-not-call was the default and people had to specially opt-in to receive solicitations?

Disclosure: I’ve never used Facebook.